Bitcoin ETFs could soon cross 1M BTC as traders expect November tailwinds

The United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) may reach a total of 1 million Bitcoin in holdings as soon as this week as traders gear up for potential crypto tailwinds in November.

These tailwinds include the US election, the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates and Russia lifting its Bitcoin mining ban — all in November.

The US spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF issuers currently hold 976,893 Bitcoin worth over $66.2 billion, making up almost 5% of Bitcoin’s $1.34 trillion market cap, as shown by Apollo and SoSoValue.

The ETFs would need to take in $1.55 billion in net inflows (at current prices) to buy the additional 23,107 Bitcoin and reach the milestone.

An average of $301 million in daily net inflows is needed for it to occur this week.

Source: Nate Geraci

Bitcoin analyst Alessandro Ottaviani noted that $3 billion has flowed into the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the last two weeks alone, adding:

“If this pace continues through November, ATH will be [inevitable].”

Key metrics from the US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue

Bitcoin has often surged several months after a halving event — the last of which occurred in April 2024 — while the outcome of the Nov. 5 US presidential election could also serve as a tailwind for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin rallied nearly 43% in November 2020 following the May 2020 halving event and President Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 — and similar price movements could result again, regardless of who wins, CK Zheng, the chief investment officer of crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, previously told Cointelegraph.

Apollo Capital’s chief investment officer, Henrik Andersson, however, said the “biggest deciding factor” on whether the crypto market rallies or not is a Donald Trump victory:

“If he does win, we believe the resulting momentum in risk assets could drive BTC to reach $100,000 by the end of the year,” Andersson told Cointelegraph. “If that were to happen, Bitcoin would have set a decisive new ATH and make big headlines around the world.”

Since November 2020, Bitcoin has only seen a greater monthly gain in December 2020 and February 2024 — the first full month after the spot Bitcoin ETFs launched.

Some of the recent gains can be attributed to academic institutions, with Atlanta-based Emory University reporting over $15.1 million of the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, an Oct. 25 filing with the US securities regulator shows.

Related: Bitcoin ETF security concerns mount after FBI warns of North Korean hackers

The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on Nov. 6 and 7, where CME Group’s Fedwatch tool forecasts a 94.7% chance that interest rates will fall 25 basis points.

Rate cuts often ease everyday consumers’ financial pressures and usually positively impact the markets — at least over the short term.

Meanwhile, Russia lifting its Bitcoin mining ban on Nov. 1 has also been viewed as a bullish development for Bitcoin, boosting network decentralization and security.

For now, Bitcoin is trading at $67,700 — struggling to break through $70,000 but with enough support at $65,000.

“[There is a] MASSIVE pile of longs sitting just under 65K, which is also a very important support level,” crypto trader “Luca” posted to X on Oct. 26.