Former President Trump leads Harris by 10 points — Polymarket
Former President Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points on the Polymarket prediction platform — a sharp reversal over betting odds in September.
According to the latest Polymarket data, Trump currently has a 55% chance of securing the Oval Office in November compared to Harris’ 45% chance.
The former President also reversed Harris’ lead in 4 of 6 swing states and now leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — with Arizona and Georgia representing the GOP candidate’s widest margins of victory.
Current 2024 election odds. Source: Polymarket.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer predicts a Harris win
While Trump gradually overtook Harris on Polymarket, CNBC’s Jim Cramer predicted that Harris would likely win the 2024 Presidential election in an Oct. 11 statement.
“I don’t see how Donald Trump wins,” the televised host asserted. Cramer’s prediction sent shockwaves through social media due to a phenomenon known as the ‘inverse Cramer effect’.
The inverse Cramer effect is popular among cryptocurrency traders and posits that whatever predictions Cramer makes, the opposite will come true.
Source: Wall Street Silver.
Related: Musk: Polymarket ‘more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line’
Trump’s public relations effort to court crypto voters
Trump’s increasing odds on Polymarket coincide with the former President’s highly public displays of support for the crypto industry meant to win over crypto voters.
On Sept. 18, the GOP candidate used Bitcoin (BTC) to purchase burgers at a New York bar. The campaign event followed on the heels of Trump’s World Liberty Financial — a decentralized finance project — announcing the launch of a native token.
This announcement turned out to be a double-edged sword that drew mixed reactions from the crypto community. “I think it genuinely damages Trump’s electoral prospects, especially if it gets hacked,” Journalist Nic Carter argued.
The veteran journalist further explained, “It’ll be the juiciest DeFi target ever, and it’s forked from a protocol that itself was hacked.” However, other industry professionals believe that the results of the 2024 Presidential election will matter little for the price of Bitcoin or the adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Dan Tapiero — founder of 10T Holdings — recently predicted that the price of Bitcoin would reach $100,000 regardless of which candidate wins in November.
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